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Cierre de la vía al llano y su impacto en el mercado laboral del Meta
Título de la revista
Autores
Ubaque Galán, Ivonne Paola
Archivos
Fecha
2024-06-04
Directores
Saavedra Pineda, Santiago
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Editor
Universidad del Rosario
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Resumen
Se presenta un estudio sobre los efectos que se dieron en 2019 con ocasión del cierre del principal corredor vial Bogotá D.C. a Villavicencio en dos de los principales indicadores del mercado laboral del departamento del Meta: tasa de ocupación y tasa de desempleo. Haciendo uso del método de control sintético, se crea una unidad ficticia del Meta para estimar los efectos sobre el mercado laboral si el cierre de dicho corredor vial no se hubiera dado. De esta forma, se busca encontrar la brecha entre las variables de interés de la unidad sintética y la unidad real, a fin de cuantificar el efecto del cierre.
Abstract
This article analyzes the effect of the longer total and permanent closure of the main road that connects Villavicencio with Bogotá D.C., which took place between May and December 2019. -Specifically, the impact on the labor market in Meta is studied. In order to achieve a consistent estimation of the effect of the closure of the road to the Llano, the Synthetic Control methodology was used, which allowed building a “synthetic Meta” department from the panel data set of 22 departments during the period 2013 to 2021, finding negative effects for the unemployment rate and employment rate of Meta. The findings are consistent in demonstrating the negative effect of the obstruction of the main road corridor of the Llanos with the center of the country in two of the main indicators of the labor market, which is consistent with previous qualitative evidence from various productive and community sectors in the region, which call for institutional actions to mitigate the negative impact on local production and economic growth, derived from the deterioration in road infrastructure that affects free and normal mobility.
Palabras clave
Vía al llano , Cierre total , Mercado laboral , Control sintético , Tasa de desempleo
Keywords
Road to llano , Labor market , Total closure , Synthetic control , Unemployment rate
